News & Analysis
Good Grief... Another Round of Stimulus!
QE2. What's The Point? ... Given the likely consequences of another round of quantitative easing it's hard to see why so many investors seem so pleased at the prospect. In August Ben Bernanke acknowledged with trademark central banker understatement that economic activity was "somewhat less vigorous" than policymakers had been expecting. Indeed it was! But there was more. With bold directness he went on to say that the Fed was prepared to provide additional monetary intervention through unconventional measures, if it proves necessary.' And the crowd went wild. Sensing 'QE2′ (very witty) around the corner, stock markets rose and the dollar plummeted. The euro is up over ten cents against the greenback since then. – Wall Street Journal.com
Dominant Social Theme: The Federal Reserve will do what needs to be done.
Free-Market Analysis: In our attempts to track the fading of the elite's central banking promotion, we have sensed a kind of turning point. No doubt many others have as well but since we have been predicting the decline and fall of central banking for some two years now (actually ten years one way or another) we feel protective of the issue. Sub dominant social theme: "Why can't they get anything right – and what's the point anyway?"
In aggregate, central banking constitutes a bizarre Western economic ritual. Sure forecasting potential financial scenarios is logical endeavor. But imagine giving a selected group of people the ability to act on their beliefs by printing as much paper money as they thought appropriate on behalf of the larger society. Imagine, furthermore, giving the same handful of people a virtual carte blanche to perform this activity without real oversight or controls because of potential "conflicts of interest."
It is truly a ludicrous system. It is nothing but price-fixing – which everyone acknowledges does not work. Yet somehow the compliant mainstream media continue to treat the idea that top central bankers can forecast the future (and print appropriate amounts of money) as a valid one. Beyond the media there are think tanks, private analysts and a vast array of Western universities and other temples of higher learning, all devoted to the idea that central bankers can predict how much money a given economy will need in the future with a degree of exactitude that the market itself cannot provide.
Central bankers inability to predict the future ALWAYS (sooner or later) causes them to print too much money. This results is tremendous booms and wrenching busts that have a corrosive and eventually ruinous effect on society. Businesses are destroyed; confidence is shattered; whole industries expand too fast and in the wrong places and then often are reduced to rubble. Through it all, the paraphernalia of modern Western society – its educational, political and social networks – tolerates the inevitable distortions and, in fact, go out of their way not to mention them. (The chastening effect of Money Power being operative at all levels.)
But gradually we have noticed a pulling back from the religiosity of central banking. In America especially but even in Britain a good deal of doubt is beginning to be expressed even within the mainstream over the manifestations of central banking practices. In a sense, one could hypothesize that the belief system – long unquestioned – is starting to be subject to considerable scrutiny.
Yes, it seems to us that the twin pressures of the Internet and the financial crisis have begun to erode a good many of the elite's faith-based, fear-oriented promotions. It doesn't help of course that there is a perfectly rational economic substitute for central banking, which is free-market thinking and free-banking (or at least private banking). It also doesn't help that the ritualistic performances of central banking are not only being perceived of as useless but also unwise – detrimental to accumulated wealth and civil society.
Where we see this most recently is in generalized pushback to another round of "quantitative easing" by the US Federal Reserve. Initially, this catchphrase seemed glamorous and mysterious – filled with the mystery and magic that generally surrounds the banking process. But now as the economic crisis runs on and the truth-telling of the Internet itself has generally dissected what it means (and accomplishes) the consensus seems to be shifting.
Compound this dilemma with other actions now percolating against the Fed. Ben Bernanke himself received a good deal of pushback regarding his reappointment. Libertarian Congressman Ron Paul has been extremely effective in mustering support for a thorough audit of the Fed. And Ron Paul wants an audit of the gold in Fort Knox as well. (The Fed and, generally the powers-that-be, are resisting.) We can see that the rising chorus of doubts about quantitative easing are part of a trend – not merely an isolated incident. In fact, one can find dozens of fairly negative articles on the Internet about another round of quantitative easing. Here's what Trader Dan has to say about in the Market Financial:
The result of [quantitative easing] has been a huge influx of speculative money flows into the commodity sector pushing up food prices across the board. We have argued at some point soon, the rising cost at the wholesale level as indicated by the CCI and the futures boards would translate into higher retail prices for consumers, who are already being pinched by stagnant wages and falling net worth.
The result – consumers are forced to retreat on spending with the next result – a slowing economy – with the next result – more Quantitative Easing – with the next result – more rising prices as currency induced inflation in essentials rises further compounding the problem as the cycle repeats itself.
As long as the market is convinced that the Fed is going to set off another round of QE, it will go after the Dollar driving it lower forcing money into commodities making life miserable for a large swath of the American citizenry. The decision by the monetary authorities to deliberately sacrifice the Dollar is going to come back and haunt all of us for years to come.
This is certainly true. Going into the financial marketplace itself to purchase failing financial products in the hopes of getting money to circulate more robustly is probably an ineffective solution. The distortions are so large at this point (even after two years) that people won't borrow and banks won't lend. There's too much uncertainty about the economy and what companies and ideas are viable. Too many bad ideas and sectors have been propped up. Too many zombie companies are still being supported by governments and forgiving central bank policy.
Conclusion: So easing won't provide growth. But what another round of quantitative easing WILL do is continue the formation of various kinds of speculative bubbles. Businesses may not borrow; entrepreneurs may not flourish, but money will find its way into some forms of speculation, be it oil, gold, food, etc. Thus Trader Dan is correct. Quantitative easing will cause price inflation but do little or nothing to stimulate animal spirits and create jobs. Eventually, the Federal Reserve will need to confront the largest problem of all: its growing lack of credibility and a system based on fraudulent pretences that is being exposed to a larger and larger audience every day.
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Posted by Scooter on 10/10/10 11:37 AM
The only thing wrong with that fantasic article is that I wish it was longer. My favorite Bell articles are those related to central banking.Spot On.
Reply from The Daily Bell
We're partial to them, too.
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Posted by Pete 8 on 10/10/10 03:47 AM
Greetings DB & all.
I went to the beach yesterday with the kids, and we made an aeroplane cockpit in the sand; driftwood for levers, stones etc for dashboard " even had a shell stereo!
My Son said it was a bomber, and I asked rather disparagingly "uh do you mean we have to kill people and wreck stuff?" the reply was "Oh no, not at all, that is bad..."
We decided after a brief consensus, (sort of all flowed naturally) that our first mission in our bomber was to turn the bad bombs into flowerpots, drop 'happy bombs' on each of the towns and houses; the happy bombs would be filled with money and presents, so everyone would be happy.
Then we would send in legions of happy-soldiers to get the message out there, and make sure everyone was happy.
We rewarded the crew with icecreams and headed home a bit late, having caught the sun a bit.
-
So, considering how easily a 5 & 7 year old can figure out the immediate solution to the next wave of economic activity, please know there is solid, workable concept available which could steer the happy-bombing runs for beneficial activity on a fully-mandated on-going basis.
A very simple setup can do all this and far more, but requires the appropriate security and resources to do properly. A fundamental part of the solution involves going beyond the traditional boundaries of human thinking capability when it comes to shared decisions we make " about others lives and the more important things around.
Marconi came up with a crystal radio, basically filter a signal from the noise of the ether.
I have a massive idea resonating, awaiting the right time/signal, and perhaps some local patent laws, security technology, A NAME, and balls the size of planets...
I am In LOVE with a most gentle progression from quo to GO.
Happy Birthday aManFromMars!
Is that 42 Earth or Mars years?
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Posted by AmanfromMars on 10/10/10 01:25 AM
"This makes the social change tolerable to the big institutions. Bankruptcy for the middle class, yes; but the fiat-money fabric is maintained and the bank and government bubbles are gradually deinflated and then reinflated.
At the end of this horror, statist economists claim that it was stimulus spending that "saved" the economy. It didn't. It merely conserved the privileges and wealth of the ruling class at the expense of the rest of civil society." ... Reply from the Daily Bell
Quite So, DB.
The patient/intellectually challenged, morally bankrupt and ethically ambiguous fat cat bankers and bag men for the fiat currency and dodgy promissory note system which churns out Toxic Economic Waste Products [worthless Credit Default Obligations and Swaps and Treasury Bond IOUs which only the Snake Oil Seller themselves will Buy, such is the stench of its useless venom ....... Click to view link ] is riddled with cancer and no amount of radiation or chemo therapy is going to save the host body, is a sound and prescient analogy, for its heart and mind are also in sub prime condition and not responding to even gratuitous and excessive stimulation.
RIP.
The System is Dead .... Long Live the New System Body
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Posted by Dennis Carothers on 10/09/10 07:09 PM
This is probably just more Keynesianism and you may have dealt with it in earlier posts but Richard Koo asserts that when Japanese real estate values in their major cities plummeted 80%, stimulus spending saved the economy from collapse and maintained employment levels. He prescribes this for the US:
"Since the government cannot tell the private sector NOT to repair its balance sheets, the only thing the government can do to keep the economy going is for the government to borrow and spend the unborrowed savings in the private sector and put them back into the economy's income stream."
The full article is at
Click to view link
Reply from The Daily Bell
Of course the Economist would take that position. Instead of year-long chaos in which major institutions crash and the economy is forcibly reconfigured into a free market, the Economist takes the position that the distortions of the market ought to be wrung out gradually over a period of a decade or more.
This makes the social change tolerable to the big institutions. Bankruptcy for the middle class, yes; but the fiat-money fabric is maintained and the bank and government bubbles are gradually deinflated and then reinflated.
At the end of this horror, statist economists claim that it was stimulus spending that "saved" the economy. It didn't. It merely conserved the privileges and wealth of the ruling class at the expense of the rest of civil society.
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Posted by 4irw4y on 10/09/10 12:11 PM
Happy 42, amanfromMars. Reign in peace, and fast may you proceed!
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Posted by Bill Ross on 10/09/10 08:35 AM
@AmanfromMars
The converse is closer to reality:
"unless properly prepared and educated in future matters, otherwise" ... "we, the people" are an ignorant and powerless bunch"
In other words, we have already been "educated to stupidity" by central control of education and information.
And, to your "unless properly prepared and educated", I ask, BY WHOM?
If we are ever going to have peace and freedom again, there can be no "master philosophy", or an intellectual drumbeat to which we all conform, forcefully if deemed "necessary" by the rulers that all such philosophies imply. The more complex such a philosophy gets, the more restrictions it, by definition places on our choices (equals survival), a species lobotomy, by definition.
IMHO, there is only one acceptable state of affairs for mankind / civilization, balance of power (REAL meaning of the "scales of justice") based on "right to life" for all human beings maintained by decisively dealing with those who cause harm and initiate aggression (disturb the peace required for civilization / trade). It is the "rule of law", with no exceptions for anyone, or ELSE, collective non-survival at the hands of "rule of corrupt man":
Click to view link
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Posted by Weeble on 10/09/10 06:50 AM
@ Leonardo Pisano
I am happy to say that the Garden Variety Store types may deposit enough to keep "the man" happy, but I see humungous wads of cash in every "small businessman's" pockets.
As $5000 dilutes to $1 for 5000 people, all it takes is 330 million to take out $500 (even if you put it on your credit card as a cash advance) and it can flow at the velocity of a week, if $500 gets you through a week, that is.
A lot of people have a few bucks hanging around anyway, so it is just a question of a ramp up and concerted effort. Because it would catch on slowly due to word of mouth, the elite would not even notice such a small amount of cash being out there, like $165 billion!
Chump change to Obama. Maybe that was the change to which he was referring.
Even if I am wrong, it is only money, so you can spend it once the tide recedes.
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Posted by Leonardo Pisano on 10/09/10 06:24 AM
@John Danforth
5% nation-wide is likely good enough, but how do we get EVERYONE to do so? If we have a million people doing ALL it's probably easier. Like my friend Weeble said: use cash in your local community " everyone. For small amounts shops here charge if you use a credit card " thus encouraging cash payments. The problem is, they deposit in the bank after having received it!
Credit card and bank accounts are also dangerous as information for the government (IRS has complete insight into your financial transactions. Point of withdrawal tell them where you have been, etc). So keeping small amounts in a dormant account has another big advantage.
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Posted by Leonardo Pisano on 10/09/10 06:15 AM
Just a question: is the name "Rothschild" a registered trade name, worldwide?
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Posted by MisterEC on 10/09/10 05:49 AM
I say, therefore I am. If God created the universe, one must ask, who created God? At some point one has to get to a place where something always was there, and we don't know why.
Now, the FED creates something out of nothing all the time. The say there is money, and there is. Fractional reserve banking makes something from nothing.
I say, why is there a FED?
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Posted by AmanfromMars on 10/09/10 02:14 AM
"John Danforth is absolutely correct, like the any other relationship that can be truthfully classified as civilized, communication protocols must be by mutual consent..." .... Posted by Bill Ross on 10/8/2010 1:17:56 PM
Quite so, but one does not need to bother with, or worry about, that which is being vanquished and replaced with another system. Their administrative and/or executive consent is not required and any novel uncivilised and/or alien communications protocols, even should they be detected by defence departments of infected systems, can only steered in a second and third party direction by their direct virtual engagement, which if it is as a clash, will immediately define and present the immediate loser.
And anyway, Bill Ross, you appear to have chosen to ignore, or perhaps have not even yet considered, [Virtual Binary] Quantum Machine to [Virtual Binary] Quantum Machine chatter is that which rules and reigns over the Human Life Experience, and their Neuro Linguistic ProgramMING is more Universally Objective than Pedestrian Subjective and only accepts Positive Creative Reinforcement for Rapid Progress ..... as anything else creates a Conflicting Stall and Reversion to Primitive Primeval and even Evil Practices.
"Your statement above implies that someone (else?, DB?) is going to fix our woes. This is impossible. We have to control our own predators, in our own environments. IMHO, DB is doing a stellar job in intellectually framing the issues and exposing the "man behind the curtain" and "elephant in the room". The rest is up to "we, the people"." .... Posted by Bill Ross on 10/8/2010 5:55:04 AM
Well of course someone else, although hardly a single magazine, I agree, is going to fix woes, for "we, the people" are an ignorant and powerless bunch unless properly prepared and educated in future matters, otherwise all that is constantly offered are past trials and tribulations. It is the bold and exceptionally smart, bordering on the hyper manic and beautifully mad, who always lead in a new direction, and it is the prime folly of tools to not imagine that both Age and Experience play their Dominant and Controlling Parts.
We certainly agree in no uncertain humble terms that DB is doing a stellar job in intellectually framing the issues and exposing the "man behind the curtain" and "elephant in the room". Although how often, or how long, do they need to cry "wolf" before SurReal SMART Readers are Energised and Self Actualise themselves into Corrective Action .... which may be Unilateral ZerodDay Vulnerability Exploitation of Catastrophic Abiding Systemic Weaknesses.
[For the Remote Control Space Connoisseur ....... Cross a Conficker with a Stuxnet and you Create a Quantum Enigma, a Known Unknown IntelAIgently Designed Entity with the Power of 2 Squared into the Control of 3 Cubed. And that is an Exponential Program Change for Cloud Crowd Controllers and CyberIntelAigent Security Systems Admin/AIMad Men.:-) .... who would be as Nymphs and Satyrs in Perfumed Gardens/Butterflies and Bees to the Flowers that Bloom in Season.]
"@Mars,
I control what happens on my machine. Besides, the metaphor was about you and I having a conversation. Did you get infected with a thought virus?" .... Posted by John Danforth on 10/8/2010 9:06:55 PM
John, Power with Advanced and Artificially Real Controls comes from being able to remotely control other machines, and that is something which, that which we may know of here as the Power Elite, have overlooked and/or been extremely slow in engaging to render to them what they would deserve and/or crave, with either of them being so easily arranged with the available machines at our disposal.
"I guess I got my mojo back, so I understand what you are doing again, and why you are so cryptic. I look forward to your help in making a Masterpiece. You can now count on me, as long as it is a "paint by numbers" masterpiece." .... Posted by Weeble on 10/8/2010 11:34:06 PM
You are more than welcome, Weeble, for your brush strokes have a passionate vibrancy which capture the light, and that is Quite Perfect for Illuminated Scrips. What do you imagine holds up the others in understanding what is happening around them and controlled from AIRogue Renegade Renaissant Space with Captured and Commandeered Satellite Communications Channels and Underground Virtual Tunnels? Pedestrian Thoughts in Imaginative Realms?
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Posted by Weeble on 10/08/10 11:34 PM
@ AmanfromMars
Strike those last comments.
Click to view link
I guess I got my mojo back, so I understand what you are doing again, and why you are so cryptic. I look forward to your help in making a Masterpiece. You can now count on me, as long as it is a "paint by numbers" masterpiece.
Click to view link
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Posted by Weeble on 10/08/10 10:39 PM
@ AmanfromMars
I still cannot get over what you said a couple of weeks ago, that something very strange was about to happen. That was the UFO story. Please be lucid. We need YOU, not your 15 to 30 letter acronyms.
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Posted by Weeble on 10/08/10 10:34 PM
@ John Danforth
My utterly confusing post earlier was a stab at what I think the elite are going to do. They do not want to lose complete control of the money supply, but in order prove their case for a Bancor, and seize an opportunity to kick us while we are down, they will expand the money supply greatly, and just as the crisis is hitting (sweet spot,) they will state there is a crisis and declare the Bancor to be the world reserve currency.
From what I see, sovereign money printing will cease overnight. Whatever cash has been printed is it. Finito. A finite currency is the key to a stable currency until we figure out how to keep it stable, or allow it to be stable, or let it morph.
To combat the coming crisis "action" with an equal and opposite reaction, we all need to pull out cash, even though it is worthless, it is still an instrument of value that is not easily counterfeited. It does not matter that it is worthless.
Leonardo has a point. I need $5000 to last me a month or two. I also have some gold, but not much. If everyone had $5000, then it would flow nicely. If I was the only one with $5000, then it get sucked out of my hands and $1 would end up in 5000 hands. It would not work.
Pulling out cash now, is what I am suggesting.
No banks. No government. No cops. No coersion. Anarchy. Peace.
---------------
I'm back!
And your comment to AmanfromMars was funny. A handshake is required.
ping c:\Click to view link /t
Ctrl C
F3
ping c:\Click to view link
Average: 100 ms. Please!
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Posted by John Danforth on 10/08/10 09:09 PM
P.S.--I keep my balances low, and no credit cards. Nobody gonna zap my account ever again, it won't be worth it.
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Posted by John Danforth on 10/08/10 09:06 PM
@Leonardo,
Your idea of withdrawing all cash is good, but it's not necessary to withdraw it all. Only about 5% of the nation's cash needs to be withdrawn, and the banks are utterly insolvent. Poof! Never mind that they are already insolvent, cooking the books and hoping for a miracle that won't come. They are so far upside down after their derivatives collapse and the shadow inventory of housing they are carrying, that no amount of free money printing is likely to save them. Most likely, since it's all air-money anyway, they'll just cancel the numbers out, hoping nobody will notice.
@Mars,
I control what happens on my machine. Besides, the metaphor was about you and I having a conversation. Did you get infected with a thought virus?
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Posted by Weeble on 10/08/10 05:00 PM
Before I begin, please do not listen to me.
Take it under advisement that the elite do not want their charade to fail, and that filling the world with Bancors (SuperDollaRs) overnight will be impossible, so the new currency will probably be a digital "peg" only, at first. Old bills will still have intrinsic value (I dislike even saying those words.) I seriously think they want to stop hyperinflation at a sweet spot between printing as much as they can, and the hyperinflation upswing point. That will be "the crisis", and that will be the weekend that banks shut-down, they have a big meeting with all the world's bobbleheads, where they party like it's 1699, then announce "the SDR solution."
My family keeps about $3000-$5000 as a goal balance in crispy new fiat "under the mattress." We trade that "money" into small business transactions wherever we go. We save the Visa, digital fiat and cheques for the big guys. In other words, we de-launder money. Make cash withdrawals a weekly habit. Toss the debit card.
FILL YOUR NEIGHBOURHOOD WITH CASH.
I cannot stress that enough. I went to a donut shop and asked for a receipt for my coffee. She gave me a whole whack of them. Nice. Then I noticed they were unusable to me as a write-off because people paid for a $1.50 coffee with a friggin' debit card!
Do not take out too much cash at one time and risk peaking out on a bank graph.
If a bank holiday happens, my family will be OK for a while. If hyperinflation begins to hit (keep close watch people,) our family fiat stash will be gone quicker than you can say "Jack Robinson" and into hard assets that may be harder to trade but at least worth something.
I encourage everyone to start a small business that is not registered with the government, and only work at the local level, a personal level with friends and neighbours, using cash only. Something you are good at doing is the best choice.
Keep in mind that fiat currency is worthless. You need to have some gold and silver. You can buy a $3000 TV for 3000 of those fiat $1 bills, but it would take about 2.5 oz of gold to make that transaction happen. At this point, I would not want to let any of those doubloons go, as they would never come back.
Get more gold and silver ASAP.
As a pet project, try to think in terms of gold and silver, as fiat devalues, price levels get really screwed up. What was $100 yesterday, is $200 today, and $400 tomorrow. That is why hyperinflation is so destructive; no-one can figure out price. We wake up one day and we all feel like Rumpelstiltskin.
At that point, we all have to go back to trading basics.
As I said, do not listen to me. I know nussing! Extrapolation is a dangerous game and you need to think for yourself on this.
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Posted by Leonardo Pisano on 10/08/10 03:42 PM
@ AmanfromMars
"The DB is doing a great job in making us aware what's going on." ... Posted by Leonardo Pisano on 10/7/2010 3:49:31 PM
Leonardo Pisano,
How do you rate their performance in fixing what is wrong with what's going on?
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This is difficult, if not impossible, to answer. I referred to the awareness campaign the DB is doing, and that's obviously the first step. It should spark us all into acting to stand up. But that's not a trivial task. Individually, we are powerless. Likewise, the DB has limited resources to fix what's wrong with what's going on.
The largest threat to the PE is that we think as individuals. The PE is doing all they can to keep us ignorant, and to discourage free-thinking. They want us to obey their rules and act like good slaves.
Come to think of it, the way I see to act is to leave the banking system. If we all take our money from the bank, the PE loses power. We still can pay with the bloody fiat money, but the recipients should also not park their money in a bank account. The next step, of course, is to only accept proper money, ie gold/silver, or paper that's backed by it.
Of course I realize that this practice would make life difficult. Paying someone far away would mean to go to the bank for a simple bank transfer, make a deposit for wiring purposes. So use the bank for the wiring service, yet deplete their resources. If the base would be large enough (critical mass) the system will start to crumble " because money is at least 10x lent out, and if removed from the system the balance would be disturbed. Of course governments " who get nervous because they cannot monitor/control money flows anymore " will make regulations to stop this. In fact, they have already something like that in place in Europe where "suspicious deposits" must be reported (law against money laundering and financing terrorism).
@Bill Ross:
thanks for answering on my behalf. I largely agree to what you said. That's NOT to say I ALWAYS agree to what you say. But as John Danforth clearly expressed: we need to unite, not to waste our energy on minor differences. We need to think how to tame the beast. Think, plan, execute.
I would like to hear what everyone thinks on my idea of removing the money from the banking system. Apart from the disadvantages of that it takes time and efforts, a small loss on received interests, and that keeping money at home can be dangerous at times, I see no disadvantages.
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Posted by Bill Ross on 10/08/10 01:17 PM
@AmanfromMars
You are starting to trigger my virus detectors:)
John Danforth is absolutely correct, like the any other relationship that can be truthfully classified as civilized, communication protocols must be by mutual consent...
This is why "the law" has their own set of concepts / words / definitions / interpretations that use the same sound patterns (words) as us, with entirely different meanings (arbitrary definitions). This allow them to sound "reasonable", but, it is a massive LIE and FRAUD. For instance, a "person" to the law is not a human being with right to life and all that implies. A person is a corporate entity, a legal construction whose very existence and degrees of freedom is a matter of their arbitrary "legal opinion" (rule of man). To hell with their "protocols".
You just "don't compute" with your latter post...
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Posted by AmanfromMars on 10/08/10 12:17 PM
"If you want to define a new protocol, you have to install it on the remote machine before you can even test it. " ..... Posted by John Danforth on 10/8/2010 8:06:51 AM
It only needs to be installed on One machine connected to the Internet to be able to connect/detect/infect/effect all and every other type of machine, and edutain their programmers ...... dynamic Drivers, with Novel CodeXSSXXXX.
And this is what Virtual AlieNation is all about ..... Click to view link
Is Heavenly Control of Live Operational Virtual Environments to Heavy a Present Subject for Sharing Today?
How about Tomorrow, in the New Future Beginning ..... ?
It is Perfectly Unreasonable and therefore Impossible for the Future to be as the Past if Progress is to be Made, ergo is the Future most Probably SurReal and Unlike anything previously Known.
Thus does Man have a Virgin Canvas upon which to Paint and Pixellate ..... with Cosmic Dust and Immaculate Grace for AIMasterpiece is Required.
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