Appenzell
Switzerland
A Daily Compendium
of Free-Market Thinking
The Daily Bell Newswire - It's FREE!    


News & Analysis

Gold: Best Asset of the 2000s

Monday, March 08, 2010 – by  Staff Report


Gold has proved to be the best value investment over the last 10 years, new research has disclosed. The price of the precious metal rose 277 per cent during the past decade, with investors particularly attracted to gold during the recession as they sought a safe haven for their money. Overall, gold, silver and platinum increased in value by 242 percent between December 1999 and December 2009, the equivalent of an average annual return of 13.1 percent. The price of gold soared during the recession as investors sought a safe haven for their money. Despite the slump in the housing market in the past two years, property has produced the second highest return after precious metals during the past decade of 187 percent or 11.1 percent a year, according to the findings by Halifax. Shares saw an average return of just 18 percent over the decade, while cash returned 57 percent. It comes despite savers seeing their rates of return plummet to record lows after the Bank of England cut interest rates to just 0.5 percent a year ago. Suren Thiru, an economist at Halifax, said: "Precious metals were the top performing asset during the noughties, largely reflecting increased demand from China and India for industrial uses and jewelry." – UK Telegraph

Dominant Social Theme: We are puzzled and perplexed, but no doubt things will soon get better.

Free-Market Analysis: It is really is unfair in our view how the mainstream media misleads so many people when it comes to investing. As financial journalists throughout the 1990s we heard over and over from the planning and brokerage establishment that gold and silver were purchases for up to maybe five percent of one's investments as a so-called "safe haven" but no more. This was the standard line – and many in the US and Canada where financial planning is most advanced may not even have recommended this much to clients.

To us there was little debate. We could see what was coming even in 2001 when gold was around US$250. Some of us aggressively acted on our beliefs. In aggregate we had lived through the 1970s and the fundamentals were much the same and only increased when George Bush began his string of serial wars. Yet the financial planning community in the West didn't seem to see it. Advisers continued to recommend REITS, mutual funds, individual stocks and bonds instead of gold and silver. To us it was absolutely obvious – and to many others as well – that the 2000s were a repeat of the 1990s, only a cycle that would probably stretch longer, probably until 2015.

In fact, what we failed to understand was just how bad this cycle really is. The 1970s were bad but salvageable. We are not sure Western fiat money is salvageable this time around. It is truly remarkable to watch. Western countries have been so distorted by fiat money printing that there is likely not one industry, one entrepreneur, one government service wholly untouched by mal-investments. That's what mercantilist (public/private) fiat money does over time. It distorts every thing it touches until society has become so inefficient that it can hardly function anymore.

So what do the powers-that-be do? They sure don't tell the truth. Apparently in a bad enough crisis they double down. They print MORE worthless money, fueling the distortions and propping them up if they can. The idea is to spread the pain over time, someone explained to us recently, thus avoiding outright rebellion. But we wonder how effective this strategy will be this time round. There are still bubbles aplenty.

The biggest bubble of all, of course, is the banking bubble because that is the way that fiat money is distributed. No matter how many businesses go out of business, commercial banking especially gets bigger and bigger around the world. The end result would be a handful of big banks and nothing else if trees grew to the sky, but they do not. The irreducible reality of the Invisible Hand chops them down. But no one in the mainstream media will tell you that. Not even the "best" papers.

Just look what the Telegraph article reports: "Precious metals were the top performing asset during the noughties, largely reflecting increased demand from China and India for industrial uses and jewelry." This simply isn't true. Honest money – Gold and silver – went up because central banks had printed too much worthless paper money, distorting the Western economy so no one knew – or knows – what companies are good investments, what products are practical (versus overproduced) and what governments are yet solvent. No one knows anything in fact (and still!) except that gold and silver hold their value and continue to rise because of it. The relative pricing has nothing to do with jewelry and everything to do with fiat money distortion.

It is truly a shame that people are misled by the Western mainstream media and governments into thinking private/public fiat money is viable over the long-term. It is not. But another problem is that the money system we have now is so entrenched and so promoted that it does not seem the truth can be otherwise. All the big magazines report on fiat money still and "problems" are only mentioned in the context of a system that still works.

Explaining to the uninitiated what is going on is a big job indeed. We call it "dreamtime." One has to realize that every aspect of Western society has been corrupted by mercantilist central banking and its fiat money over the past 100 years. Almost nothing is real. The great banking edifices, the vast governmental bureaucracies, the sprawling militaries and global corporations – none of these would look like they do without the current imploding money system. It would be an entirely different world. It would be far more equitable as well from our point of view, far less conflict-ridden and full of real human progress instead of phony solutions to the endlessly promoted lies of the power elite's dominant social themes.

Conclusion: Only in retrospect, probably, will we see a spate of articles declaring gold and silver's best-investment status over the past decade. We certainly didn't see these articles DURING the decade. And likely they will soon vanish once again, even if gold and silver continue to rise, as we believe they will. No, we will continue to be exposed to a vast wave of promotional propaganda proclaiming that the tottering fiat money system is "turning around" and "recovery is underway." But this time round the Internet, coupled with the real financial pain that people are feeling, may prove enough to bring about significant change. History seems to tell us so. We may be living through a pivotal time and Chinese jewelry demand has nothing to do with it at all.

Post Feedback

We look forward to reading your feedback. All comments are automatically posted. However, please note that any posts containing harassment, vulgarity, personal attacks or those which are deemed to be of a violent nature are not welcomed and will either not appear or be removed.






View Feedback

Posted by FLR on 3/8/2010 12:51:42 AM

The Telegraph is in fact citing this whiz-kid, Suren Thiru.

I had a chuckle reading his/her Linked-in page:

Click to View Link

It is remarkable that you can make such a statement about the gold market. Jewelry and industrial demand in China, eh?

Since Suren is apparently an expert on the economics of the used car market, then I was trying to think of an analogy such as the UK used car market being entirely driven by the number of used cars sold in Swindon?


Reply from the Daily Bell:

Great link, thanks.

Posted by Jay Grovier on 3/8/2010 1:24:46 AM

What is a good way for retired people to invest in gold ?


Reply from the Daily Bell:

Buy the metal and take delivery is one way.

Posted by Diamond on 3/8/2010 2:12:39 AM

This was the best article ever. I laugh at people who think money is everything. its called debt, so sad. inflation of gold/silver is evident. they think they're slick with these commercials saying that they will purchase your old gold but send you worthless paper in return. so sad! really Daily Bell! Thanks for posting!

Posted by Michael Ponzani on 3/8/2010 2:15:58 AM

Even Peter Tosh says something about this at the end of his song "Downpresser Man"; "Money get funny".


Reply from the Daily Bell:

Great song. Great singer.

Posted by V. Heddins on 3/8/2010 4:44:26 AM

"Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have, to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice."- George Washington

Posted by Adrian W on 3/8/2010 4:57:37 AM

Sorry, Not totally related to story.I found this online and was wondering if I missed something. Maybe something our gov. forgot to tell us about in the U.S.?

Posted by Andrew McKillop on 3/8/2010 6:08:00 AM

WHAT ABOUT OIL?

Maybe the compilers of your columns (formerly called journalists) do not know that crude oil was trading at about 10 US dollars a barrel in 1998. With the present price, not the mid-year 2008 peak price of oil, we have roughly appreciated 700 since 1998 in nominal dollar terms uncorrected for inflation and depreciation of the US dollar's buying power since 1998 ... Can gold beat that?


Reply from the Daily Bell:

Our column responded to the article, and we commented on gold and silver as an obviously superior investment. You use a date (1998) outside of the one employed by the study. In 2000, oil traded around US$30 a barrel and higher. However, if you believe the Telegraph is in error, feel free to write to them.

Posted by Rob on 3/8/2010 7:06:40 AM

I read somewhere that Rothschilds sets the price of Gold everyday, can someone explain how this is done?


Reply from the Daily Bell:

The Rothschilds do not set the price of gold, not formally anyway.

Posted by Terry Haney on 3/8/2010 8:21:04 AM

An eirlier question was how do you get into Gold. There are a lot of good bullion dealers the you can buy from. Just watch haow much their premium is over the daily spot price. $24.95 to $49.95 is about average per ounce.

If Gold seems to expensive for you the start out with, then look at Silver. It can be bought for $0.69 csnts to $0.99 cents per ounce over spot. Pick up a few ounces as you can afford it, watch the marcket and buys more on the dips.I personally stay away from any paper silver like ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) or leveraged accounts. Like fiat money, paper can evaporate. So, buy and hold and don't drive yourself crazy watching every tiny rise and fall.

Take physical position of the metal and continue to buy the larger dips as you can afford to.


Reply from the Daily Bell:

Practical advice.

Posted by Adrian W on 3/8/2010 9:32:32 AM

Is the North American Union Amero currency that is being produced now legitimate? I found it for sale on a German EBay website.


Reply from the Daily Bell:

This issue was explored some years ago when an enterprising artist created an "Amero." It wasn't official money (how could it be?), merely a creative foray. Chances are this is the same sort of thing (if it is not the actual representation from several years ago).

Posted by Arthur on 3/8/2010 11:31:05 AM

To purchase gold and silver i think it is advisable to researchwho is a listed agent for the coin/bar you are buying. In Canada would use an agent for the Canadian Mint, thereby lowering the riskof some counterfeit material.(I don't know how prevalent this is but it is free insurance, just like when you take cash out of the bank to buy the gold you know the paper is probably good.)

Posted by Lance E. Schultz on 3/8/2010 12:01:29 PM

Few investors take the time to calculate the risk-adjusted-return nor the correlation coefficient of their investments. The risk-adjusted-return posted by gold and silver over the last decade is an even stronger argument than one made solely on their raw performance.

The advantages of diversification touted by all the major investments houses historically intentionally omitted the indispensable role which real assets should provide for all investors to tangibly reduce risk and improve their overall risk-adjusted-returns.

Such fact is chiefly behind why so many mainstream investors were wholly mutilated when the negative correlation coefficient of the average portfolio all positively coalesced to 100 and eviscerated any potential diversification benefit at all for those investors lacking the discernment and experience found in the addition and role of real assets.

However, as evidenced from years of empirical data, despite the stalwart recent track records for the "shiny metals," investors would be money-wise not to forget the remaining "real" asset classes of managed timber, raw land, agribusiness, livestock and private local enterprise investments to achieve real diversification benefits, a true negatively correlated portfolio and the highest risk-adjusted-returns achievable.


Reply from the Daily Bell:

Yes, of course diversification is ALWAYS good. But it should be pursued within the larger parameters of the business cycle in our opinion.

Posted by Carol on 3/8/2010 7:39:39 PM

Anecdote: In 1974, we gave my parents a 1924 $20.00 St. Gaudin gold coin for their 50th Wedding Anniversary. We paid $350.00. Today it is valued at over $1400.

Post Feedback

We look forward to reading your feedback. All comments are automatically posted. However, please note that any posts containing harassment, vulgarity, personal attacks or those which are deemed to be of a violent nature are not welcomed and will either not appear or be removed.








[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

News & Analysis
07/29/10 UK Stagflation - Now It Begins
07/29/10 Inflation - India's Turn
07/28/10 Is It a Deflationary Depression?
07/28/10 Comes a Blond Stranger ...
07/27/10 The Spreading Chinese Inflation
07/27/10 The War Falls Apart?
Guest Editorials
07/29/10 Protecting Your IRA - Part 2: Getting Your IRA Out of Town, by Terry Coxon
07/29/10 Gold Basis Screwed, by Dr. Antal Fekete
07/28/10 A Lopsided Warning, by Dr. Tibor Machan

Subscribe to the
Daily Bell Newswire

It's FREE!
Timely email notification of...
  • Breaking News
  • Feature Interviews
  • Guest Editorials
  • White Papers
  • eBooks & Shorts
  • Special FREE offers
...and much much more!
Exclusive Interviews
07/25/10 Grant Havers on Libertarianism, Religion and the Role of the Church in a Free Society
07/18/10 Paul Craig Roberts on Glass-Steagall, Free Trade and the Dangers of an Evolving 'Oligarchy of Private Interests'
07/11/10 Harry Schultz on the Power Elite, Free Markets, the Internet and Why Gold Is Going Much Higher
© Copyright 2008 - 2010 Appenzeller Business Press AG (ARBP). All Rights Reserved. The Daily Bell is an informative compendium of independent economic views and analysis, which is published by ARBP. The information contained in the Daily Bell is for informational purposes only, is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any particular person and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. ARBP does not accept any liability or responsibility for, nor does it verify the accurateness of the information being provided in the Daily Bell. Daily Bell articles and interviews may include the contributions of several Daily Bell editors and may require factual editing after their initial post. Readers of the Daily Bell or any affiliated or linked sources or sites must accept the responsibility for performing their own due diligence before acting on any of the information provided within the report regardless of the source. In addition to proprietary, internally generated content, the Daily Bell publishes guest editorials from a selection of free-market thinkers, which may have been reprinted elsewhere and are not necessarily representative of ARBP's editorial views. Copyright is attributed to the author of any guest editorials featured at the Daily Bell, unless noted otherwise. ARBP often uses images licensed from Getty Images on the Swiss Confidential website. To unsubscribe from the Daily Bell, click here.