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Why Gold Could Go Much Higher
July 23, 2011
Editorial By Anthony Wile
Are there forces at work increasingly inflicting chaos and war on the world? If this is the case, the ceiling on gold and silver will keep moving higher. Gold went up again yesterday on bad news from the US, Norway and Europe.
The bad news is a steady drumbeat, a kind of dominant social theme in itself. The idea is that the world is a chaotic and fearful place; though such bad news is undoubtedly manmade and is thus prone to mischief and manipulation.
Trends certainly reinforce the meme. In Norway, a bomb blast and subsequent shooting left up to 80 dead. In the US, talks about raising the debt ceiling broke off again, leaving that country teetering on the brink of a self-inflicted insolvency. In Europe, a deal to bail out Greece by the EU's solvent North left as many questions as answers.
The world's problems can be a positive for gold and silver investors. The worse it gets, the more gold shines. "The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) closed Friday up 0.8% at $1.56.12 a share. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) gained 2% to finish at $39.07 a share. In futures markets, gold for August delivery gained 0.9% to settle at $1,601.50 and ounce on the Comex, just 90 cents short of a record. September silver rallied 3% to $40.12 an ounce.
Given what's going on in the world, does anyone believe that gold and silver have entered a sustained downward trend? Ten years ago, US$1,000 gold seemed fairly unrealistic and US$2,000 was seen as the top of the arc only by the most extreme gold bulls. But it seems fairly certain this leg of the business cycle is going to run until at least 2015 or 2016, and the heights that gold and silver could reach in this time period are fairly astonishing to contemplate. Is US$5,000 gold out of the question? How about US$250 silver?
It's not an argument that anyone wants to contemplate willingly, but it's one we point out regularly: If the Anglo-American power elites are intent on creating global governance and are willing to use war and false-flag events to create the conditions for such an occurrence, then we may be in for many more years of difficult times. And this will surely have an effect on gold and silver prices.
Are governments capable of acting against their own people in this manner on a sustained basis? During Operation Gladio, in order to ensure that Europeans remained sympathetic to Anglo-American causes, various kinds of para-military activities were conducted by Western Intel and then blamed, apparently, on "leftists." The Pentagon's Operation Northwoods called for blowing up an American passenger plane over the US to incite a war with Cuba.
Here is the crux investment question. If the larger Anglo-American power elite for whatever reason is either facilitating or covering up such incidents, then won't this have a ongoing, powerful price impact on gold and silver? These metals are surely safe havens as well as stores of value.
How high can they rise in purchasing power if Western elites are really provoking war and chaos? Much higher, I would venture to day. Each day now, one wakes up anticipating more unsettling news. This past week there were widespread reports of an Iranian war in the planning stages. With the US and NATO involved in six other wars in the Middle East, who would be so bold as to dismiss the possibility outright?
Back to Norway. The mass shooting was said to have been conducted by a tall, white-skinned, blond haired man, giving rise to what may already be considered a sub dominant social theme of the elites involving "white al-Qaeda." (White al-Qaeda would include those who believe Western powers-that-be are attempting to push the West toward a new world order using various kinds of false-flag violence.) One group being blamed for the larger attacks is led by Mullah Krekar, who may have had dealings with the CIA and whose group, Ansar al-Islam, was involved with the CIA and Pakistan during the long-ago war against the USSR in Afghanistan.
There is no doubt that gloomy world news continues to have an impact on precious metals. Total assets in ETFs reportedly have hit 2,155 tons, up from 2,106 tons in the year prior. A group of technical analysts for Barclays now estimate a potential gold price rise to $1,635 an ounce, though they suggest waiting for a pullback (to the US1550 area) before making additional purposes. According to S&P's Mark Arbeter, a "measured move" to $1,700 an ounce appears possible although a "blow off" move to $2,000 an ounce is not impossible either.
Presumably, such numbers would be reached if various current events yield truly negative outcomes. Knowledgeable observers had been fairly sure that the latest Euro-deal on Greece would damp down the Sovereign crisis, but doubts are creeping in. Private investors must agree to longer maturities on the bonds they hold and angry Germans will have to be convinced to accept a package that plainly asks Germany to underwrite additional European red ink.
Meanwhile, the American debt issue continues to simmer, with the two main players – House Majority Leader John Boehner and President Barack Obama –at loggerheads. Even a "successful" conclusion to this latest financial crisis will probably not yield a long-term resolution. America's debt problems are too big: A long-term strategy is called for, but it is one that eludes policymakers.
The potential for a long-feared war between Iran and Israel was a subject of increasing mainstream media speculation last week. Comments by recently retired Mossad chief Meir Dagan that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was considering an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, launched a storm of speculation.
One might discount the possibility of an all-out regional war in the Middle East, given the terrible nature of its consequences. Unfortunately, the two parties (Iran and Israel) are so distrustful of each other that such a war seems within the realm of possibility, if not probability.
How much worse can things get? Quite a bit, and over a fairly lengthy period of time. Owning gold or silver at such high prices might seem counterintuitive but history seems to be showing us they can go higher still.