Michael Every argues that the entire global system, spanning security, geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geofinancial architecture, is coming apart at the seams, some of it unplanned and some deliberately ripped or snipped, with the US clearly overstretched as it fights Iran, runs low on missile interceptors, and threatens to kick countries off the dollar while even reviving centuries-old letters of marque to legalize piracy against Iranian oil. He warns that Russia could mobilize another half a million men after the September 19-20 Duma elections, possibly detonate a tactical nuke as a warning, or make a token strike on a Baltic state to test whether NATO Article 5 holds, and that anyone who thinks monthly inflation data or payrolls are the most important thing to watch “is in the wrong job.” He concludes that markets have returned to being driven by war, crop failures, and natural disasters as they were for hundreds of years, that no gold price will make China hand back supply chains, and that the West’s 40-year “disease” of quick bucks and massive margins must adapt to a mass-volume, low-margin system or there is no system in the long run.
Top 5 Key Topics
US overstretch and the pivot to economic warfare: The US publicly says it will not attack Iran physically because it is short on missile interceptors and precision ammunition, so it has shifted to sanctions and threats to cut Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, Central Asia, and China off the dollar, which China has already refused to help with. Every believes physical warfare will return, noting a US startup in the UAE is building drone interceptors for $5,000 each with 3D-printed parts at 15,000 per month, which could scale to 150,000 or 1.5 million.
Russian escalation scenarios and the NATO Article 5 test: CIA Director Ratcliffe’s unannounced Moscow visit likely signals US intelligence spotting an escalation, with rumors of mobilization after the September Duma elections and 50,000 North Korean troops. Every says a tactical nuke or a small land grab from a Baltic state would force the question of whether NATO goes to war, and if not, Russia has proven Article 5 does not hold below a certain threshold.
Trump’s “military” bond-market comment means the paradigm can be changed by force: Take Trump seriously but not literally; he will not bomb bondholders, but the message is that the US will not let the long end of the curve end its status as a world power the way Suez did to France and the UK. Bessent’s tools include shifting issuance to T-bills, creating a stablecoin bid via the Clarity Act with “rewards” instead of interest, and possibly a dual interest rate of 4-5% abroad versus 2% at home.
Gold cannot fix the global order and China wants an emergency fallback, not a reserve yuan: Every says there is no gold price at which China says “the gig’s up” and returns rare-earth processing and supply chains, since economic statecraft is not market-based. China importing gold while its 10-year approaches 1% is a flex and an emergency mechanism against being kicked off the dollar, and China does not want a financialized global renminbi that would undermine its industry.
Europe’s slow agony and Canada’s contradictory pivot: Draghi’s new think tank says Europe’s situation is now existential after almost none of his report was implemented, while the EU considers absorbing Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine, Moldova, and Montenegro, guaranteeing permanent friction with Russia. Every calls the idea of Canada joining the EU “lunatic,” noting Carney is fighting for sovereignty while seeking integration with a bloc that requires surrendering it, and flags upcoming elections including AfD winning a German state and a possible Mélenchon versus Le Pen French runoff.
