Howe argues that the current Fourth Turning will climax in the mid-2030s with three main threats converging: financial crash, political collapse, and great power conflict, likely involving the US, China, and Russia. He explains that Fourth Turnings force societies to socialize gains and losses, mobilize total resources, and turn to strongmen leaders who act as wrecking balls against ossified institutions, citing historical examples where half of US manufacturing capital was federally owned by 1945. Howe concludes that survival depends on building community bonds, acquiring practical skills like navigation without GPS, achieving infrastructure independence, and avoiding financial assets vulnerable to inflation and repression, which is why his fund holds commodity futures and precious metals instead of fixed income securities.
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The new survival guide: Howe has completed a manuscript titled How to Prepare for the End of the World As We Know It, due out in early March, which addresses the three main Fourth Turning threats (financial crash, political collapse, great power war) and provides practical guidance on relocation, family preparedness, financial portfolios, and essential skills. The book aims to give readers agency rather than fatalism, arguing that historical Fourth Turnings prove certain actions and community engagement make a decisive difference in who survives and thrives.
Loss of practical knowledge: Howe notes that in 1900 about 40% of Americans were farmers versus 1.3 to 1.5% today, and that modern society has lost contact with food cultivation, infrastructure repair, and basic skills like using a compass and map or tying knots. He emphasizes that young people are eager to learn these skills but no one offers to teach them, and that this intergenerational knowledge transfer is critical for resilience when systems break down.
Community as currency: Howe observes that after moving from blue zone Great Falls, Virginia to rural West Virginia, he discovered that social engagement is inversely related to population density, with rural areas using time spent with neighbors as currency rather than money. He stresses that community bonds are built through repeated trust interactions over time and cannot be bought or created instantly during a crisis, making advance preparation essential.
Socialization in total war: Howe explains that during crises like World War II, societies socialize gains and losses regardless of ideology, with the federal government owning over half of all manufacturing capital by 1945 and forcing financial repression through low interest rates on bonds. He argues this collectivization is inevitable when facing existential threats, whether external wars or internal conflicts, and that Donald Trump’s instinct for whatever it takes governance fits this Fourth Turning pattern.
Investing for volatility drag: Howe’s Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF (ticker HEFT) prioritizes preventing drawdown by holding strategic cash reserves (following Warren Buffett’s practice of keeping up to 50% in cash during high valuations), uses commodity futures and precious metals instead of fixed income to hedge inflation, and employs trend following plus tail hedging against gap downs. He warns that the Shiller CAPE ratio in the 40s historically predicts negative decade returns and that volatility drag means geometric returns can be underwater even with positive arithmetic averages.
