Foreign policy often plays a minor role in U.S. elections, with voters more focused on domestic issues like inflation and grocery prices, potentially limiting significant changes in Trump’s approach.
Realism and restraint in foreign policy, once a minority view, have gained more support in power circles, indicating a potential shift in overall U.S. foreign policy approach.
The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles with a 200-250 mile range outside pre-24 borders is viewed as a significant escalation.
Trump could potentially end the Ukraine conflict by allowing Russia to annex 4 disputed oblasts in exchange for Ukraine keeping Odessa and some coastline, given the significant Russian population in those areas.
Trump might cut a deal to end the Yemen conflict by allowing Houthis to control the Red Sea, recognizing the failure of U.S. efforts despite spending billions on bombing campaigns.
The reestablishment of Saudi-Iran relations has reduced Saudi pressure on Iran, benefiting the U.S. but potentially complicating Israel’s position in the region.
China’s economic growth is unlikely to be significantly impacted by U.S. sanctions and tariffs due to its diversified trade relationships, including getting 90% of Iran’s oil and growing ties with Russia.
Experts like Eli Colby advocate for a de-escalatory policy towards China, suggesting the U.S. should lead from behind and let countries like Japan and India take the lead in balancing against China’s rise.
