Charles Nenner says his cycle work called gold’s top near $5,500 and a bottom in August, and that a major low is now forming with gold headed to a $6,500 target and silver rising alongside it well into next year. He argues the US is running out of money and weapons because of multiple wars, that the long bond is falling (rates rising) with no Fed easing in the cycle, that the Iran war is an unwinnable stalemate, and that his war cycles show a spike between 2030 and 2032. He warns of a major stock market crash next year, comparing current sentiment and yearly cycles to 1927-28, says Bitcoin’s enthusiasm is over and it will eventually disappear, and flags homebuilder stocks down 50% as a 2006-style warning for housing.
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Gold and silver cycle call: Nenner says his chart from last year hit the top “exactly at 5 and a half thousand” with a bottom in August, and gold now targets $6,500 “later in the next year.” Silver, which hit $121 and change before pulling back, is also heading higher into next year.
Stock market crash warning for next year: He says the yearly cycles look exactly like 1927-28 for the first time, with “nothing can go wrong, it only goes up” sentiment. He notes the Dow was 5,000 under Clinton and people lived normally, and says wealthy clients are moving money into a 200-year-old Swiss firm that buys and vaults gold the same day.
War cycles and geopolitics: Nenner sees a spike in his war cycles between 2030 and 2032, with a “1918-style” stalemate until then in Ukraine. He argues Western Europe supplying weapons makes it liable in Russia’s eyes, that NATO expansion provoked Putin, and that the Iran war is unwinnable because the US “cannot win” on terrain “like the moon.”
US fiscal strain and rates: He says the US is running out of money and weapons supplying the Middle East, the long bond is going down (rates higher), the commodity index cycle is up, and the fed funds cycle shows no easing. Even a half-point rise in fed funds costs the US enormous money, a problem “accelerating because of all these wars.”
Oil, housing, and Bitcoin: Oil (peaked near $120, now low-to-mid $80s) will go up “one more time” with $101 as the big target. He is worried about housing because he was short Toll Brothers and Lennar, which fell 50%, echoing his 2006 CNBC warning when builders fell 70%; Bitcoin has seen its high, will go down, and “will disappear.”
