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Mark Thornton: The Precarious State of the American Economy
By Bryan Lutz - March 15, 2025

 

Summary

The American economy is facing significant challenges, including inflation, weak markets, and a potential recession by 2025, which will impact the volatility of assets like Bitcoin and gold.

 

Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Response

The US economy is at a precarious point with stock markets downtech stocks stagnant, and employment reports soured, signaling an emerging economic crisis.

The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates and inflate the money supply in response, despite Chairman Powell’s current optimism about maintaining the 2% inflation target.

Root Causes of Economic Instability

The current economic bubble was created by massive money supply inflation during COVID-19 lockdowns, with the Fed bailing out businesses through trillions in checks and loans.

The Fed’s inflationary policies under Powell and Biden for the past four years have created a huge economic problem, setting up the economy for a correction and crisis.

Market Distortions and Overvaluation

Major cities are experiencing massive overdevelopment of downtown areas, with empty office buildings and zombie corporations slowly eating themselves due to low interest rates and government subsidies.

The housing market is booming with prices way up from 2019-2020 levels, driven by funny money from government subsidies and low interest rates, creating a significant price gap between high-quality homes and multi-unit housing.

Impending Market Corrections

The used car market is experiencing a huge bubble with prices way up during pandemic lockdowns, driven by government subsidies and low interest rates.

The commercial real estate market is overbuilt, with hospitalsstorage units, and other properties potentially empty due to the shift to remote work, exemplifying the skyscraper theory of market overdevelopment.

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