Thompson argues that government bond yields are rising in lockstep across the US, Europe, Japan, the UK, Canada and Australia to 20 to 30 year highs, and that rolling over record debt loads (near the highest debt to GDP outside wartime) at these rates creates a fiscal squeeze that will force the Federal Reserve back into quantitative easing, which he calls highly bullish for gold and even more so for silver. He views the US 30-year at 5.43% as already past the 5.3% level he thought Washington could tolerate, expects one more Fed hike this year followed by a short-term dip in gold before it “takes off” once the market believes hikes are done, and warns that rising rates can be inflationary because businesses pass higher borrowing costs into prices. Beyond metals he favors low-debt gold and silver miners, copper producers, unloved small caps, and cheap Japanese and Hong Kong stocks, while trimming exposure to tech, semiconductors and data centers, which he says will lead any decline.
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Global bond yields and the debt double whammy: US 5-year yields are around 5%, the 10-year above 5.1%, and the 30-year at 5.43% and heading toward 5.5%, while comparable spikes are hitting every major bond market. Thompson says maturing debt issued at far lower rates is being rolled at multi-decade highs, pushing interest costs up much faster than GDP for years even if Fed funds eventually fall.
Dollar and Treasury selling: The DXY sits near 101, down from 110 a year or two ago but up from a recent 96 to 97 low, and Thompson expects a gradual decline rather than a collapse because commodity trade remains dollar-denominated. He attributes foreign Treasury selling to weaponization fears and to the abandonment of DOGE after about six months, leaving spending “like there’s no tomorrow” as the new norm.
Gold, silver and the coming QE: A final 2026 Fed hike could pressure gold short term as savers favor a quarter point more on deposits, but Thompson thinks central banks will be “invited, pushed, ordered” to buy bonds with printed money, sending gold and silver past prior records. Silver should move like gold but faster, with CME warehouse stocks at half their level of a few years ago and mine supply still short of industrial demand even in a recession.
Miners, position sizing and taking profits: S&P 500 companies carry roughly 100% debt to equity and trade at 27 times trailing earnings versus a 16 to 17 historical norm, while most gold and silver miners have little or no debt and could trade below 10 times earnings if metals rise. His published allocation is 15% gold, 7% silver, 22% including miners, and he says never sell based on profit size, only trim when a single position balloons to around 5% of the portfolio.
Copper, uranium and value outside commodities: Copper hit an all-time record near $6.93 (now $6.75), roughly doubling in three years on data center, cable and generator demand, and Thompson prefers copper miners that also produce gold and silver; uranium equities he calls already priced for the nuclear buildout. He recommends small caps screened with AI tools for companies under $1 billion market cap on P/Es below 10, plus Japan, Hong Kong and Pacific Basin emerging market funds for yield and growth.
