Nomi Prins argues that gold’s pullback from about $5,500 in January to a stable $4,300 to $4,400 range is a temporary, headline-driven dip, and she maintains a $6,000 gold forecast around year-end as ETF inflows, strong miner margins, and central bank buying continue. She says the US is already in a debt crisis, with over $40 trillion in debt, more than $1 trillion in annual interest, and shrinking foreign demand, so the Treasury’s small buyback program and the Fed’s quietly growing balance sheet amount to an emerging form of QE that will expand in the next crisis. She dismisses the Fed’s 25 basis point hike as Kevin Warsh flexing independence, since rates show no correlation to oil-driven inflation and cannot “produce a gold mine” or fix a logistics crisis.
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Western retail returns to gold: Investors put about $18 billion into gold ETFs in August, the second largest monthly inflow on record, after pulling money during the early Iran war headlines. Prins expects October portfolio rebalancing and producer earnings, with all-in costs of $1,800 to $2,200 versus a $4,300+ gold price, to build momentum into 2027.
Central banks choose gold over Treasuries: The ECB reports gold now makes up 27% of global official reserves versus 22% for US Treasuries. Prins says central banks hold reserves for liquidity and sovereign power rather than yield, so they will not dump gold to chase a 5% Treasury.
Foreign demand for US debt collapsing: The People’s Bank of China held about $1.3 trillion of US debt a decade ago and now holds an all-time low of around $650 billion, buying gold as bonds mature. The Treasury’s roughly $4 billion Bessent buyback is a “beta test” that she expects any future administration to grow.
Fed balance sheet growing despite the hike: Since ending QT last December, the Fed has replaced about $40 billion per month in Treasuries, roughly matching average monthly auctions. Prins’s firm found no correlation between rate moves and oil prices, and she predicted the hike on Fox because oil was above $100.
Gold repatriation trend: The Netherlands moved 86 tons from New York and Canada to London and Utrecht, France has shifted gold from New York to Paris, and the Bundesbank is discussing repatriating the third of its reserves held at the New York Fed. Venezuela is moving 31 tons the opposite direction, from London to New York, to use as loan collateral, which Prins frames as the same “closer to home” trend.
