Moriarty argues that the world is witnessing the first worldwide revolution, driven by collapsing trust in government and currency, with protests spreading from France to Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Albania, and Greece, all rooted in the inability to afford basic necessities like fuel and housing. He warns that the situation will worsen dramatically if Israel or the United States attacks Iran before or after the upcoming Israeli election on Tuesday, potentially triggering oil prices of $150 to $400 per barrel, a stock market collapse as soon as Monday, and the fall of the House of Saud when the Houthis continue their devastatingly accurate strikes on Saudi Arabia’s target-rich infrastructure. Moriarty predicts that once Saudi Arabia’s 5,000 to 7,000 princes {{get their platinum American Express cut in half}}, revolution will erupt there, and he sees no way for bankrupt Western governments spending 57% to 58% of GDP to reverse the socialist tap they have opened, leaving them with no tools to address legitimate grievances and forcing them toward authoritarianism as the only remaining option.
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Revolution spreading across Europe: Moriarty observed students setting up barricades even in his secure, middle-class farming town in southern France, indicating that unrest has spread beyond major cities to the most stable areas. He notes that protests have erupted in France, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Albania, and Greece, all driven by lack of trust in government and money, with approval ratings for leaders like Macron at 16% compared to Trump’s 26 to 27%.
Socialism’s irreversible spending trap: Moriarty explains that France spends 57% to 58% of its economy on social programs compared to 38% in the United States, with French retirees enjoying the highest incomes in the world because they can retire at 60 to 62 and still work. He argues that governments opened the socialist tap and cannot close it without provoking revolt, because once benefits are given, taking them away causes people to demand more even as governments run out of money and taxing the rich beyond current levels only decreases revenue.
Imminent Middle East catastrophe: Moriarty warns there is an above 50% chance that Netanyahu will attack Iran this weekend before Tuesday’s Israeli election to avoid prison, which could trigger a stock market collapse on Monday or two weeks later after the U.S. midterm elections. He predicts that if the Houthis and Iran retaliate by cutting undersea data cables through the Strait of Hormuz and shutting down Saudi oil production, Brent crude could hit $150 to $400 per barrel, destroying the world economy and potentially causing the fall of the House of Saud when 5,000 to 7,000 Saudi princes lose their wealth.
Military pay inflation signals collapse: Moriarty notes that when he joined the Marines in 1964, pay was $75 per month, and today an E1 earns $2,229 per month, which is 29 times higher, illustrating the massive inflation over 62 years. He compares this to gold rising from $35 per ounce to $2,600, and argues that Warren Buffett’s entire career was simply a bet on inflation, which like a balloon being continuously inflated must eventually burst.
Education as the path forward: Moriarty argues that people today have access to infinitely more information than investors in 1929, yet there are no protests like those in 1964 to 1966 against the Vietnam War, because the education system does not teach people to think. He advises individuals to keep fuel in their cars, six months of food and water at home, and most importantly to educate themselves and develop discernment, because an educated voter and investor knows exactly what to do and could create a totally different society.
